Programmers Aren't Going Anywhere

This is a story about how the number of programmers continues to grow, despite the AI boom.

In 2008, about 9 million people were programmers, according to Stack Overflow. Today, that number has ballooned to 45–50 million developers worldwide, a fivefold increase in just eighteen years.

Far from reducing the need for programmers, AI is actually intensifying it. AI replacing programmers is unlikely because there are simply more tasks to be done than there are programmers to do them. While AI may automate some jobs, overall demand for software development is soaring and is likely to keep increasing.

Demand for programmers will surge over the next 15–20 years, and AI alone may not meet this demand. You might ask how I can be so confident. While I don’t have a crystal ball, my experience with complex problems over time has shown that context is crucial. Past activities inevitably shape present decisions, and this presents a tough challenge for AI. Modern AI agents start fresh with every task, lacking useful long-term context, and even limited short-term memory sharing often proves ineffective. In short, there is no quick fix.

The situation will probably persist, with the global programmer population continuing to grow. Talented students will be in high demand, and universities are already struggling to keep pace. Specialized IT education and relevant courses will become increasingly important.

Programming careers offer strong opportunities today. It’s far from too late; this field is still in its early stages. To achieve success, one must learn, grasp complex concepts, and write a considerable amount of code.

I like how Antirez describes in his blog that “vibe coding is the process of generating software using AI without being part of the process at all. When the process is actual software production where you know what is going on, remember: it is the software *you* are producing.”

It is perfectly fine even if you do not plan to become a programmer and are simply reading this. The industry needs more than just coders; it needs people who can organize teamwork effectively and clearly define direction to achieve meaningful goals.

I read a post a few days ago by a Honda Software Architect that I recommend for non-programmers seeking a better understanding of the situation. It’s not a big breakthrough, but it’s interesting. My main point is simple: AI is a powerful, high-tech assistant, but ideas, understanding people’s needs, and responsibility for the outcome still rest with you.

Stories about programmers losing their jobs because of AI are myths. Layoffs in big tech are driven more by high U.S. salary costs, poor management, and business optimization than by AI. Ineffective managers and others who do not develop or contribute will face replacement, regardless.

These are my thoughts for today.